Time to update my semi-regular ongoing side-bar check of the Australian stock market as it tries to claw its way back to pre-GFC levels. As you can see from the following graph, it still has a long way to go.
When the GFC hit Australia the All Ordinaries index was at 6.828. At the close of trading on Friday 7th of October 2016 it was sitting pretty level at 5,467—still 19.93 percent below the pre-GFC level.
On the upside, an article in the Australian last week pointed out that most people's minimum contribution compulsory rate superannuation should now have recovered back to the pre-GFC levels. Well I guess that is good news even though it has taken the better part of 8.5 years for this to happen despite regular contribution being made over that time. So, in a way, that is like 8.5 years of superannuation appreciation and contributions being lost due to the impact of the GFC.
Also, on the good news side, those in the know are pretty sure that the All Ordinaries index should get back to pre-GFC levels by mid-2018. In other words we should see the All Ordinaries hitting 6.800 points sometime around June/July 2018. However, I would point out that back in 2010 many of the experts were predicting that the stock market would recover from the GFC within five years. However, as you can see, 6.5 years on from 2010 the index is still a long way from having 'recovered'. This is being blamed on the unforeseen ending of the 30 year resources boom that came to an abrupt end after slightly more than ten years. But it does make you wonder what other unexpected events the experts might not have adjusted for.